Novice collectors often believe that the Standard
Catalog of World Paper Money represents the last word on banknote
values. Experienced collectors and dealers know better. While the various
catalogs are invaluable guides (I recommend them for all serious collectors),
they are not the definitive word on pricing.
The catalog and market values for notes often differ for many reasons:
Out-of-date: Each catalog takes months--if not years--to produce, and
by the time of publication, much of the information contained therein
is already outdated. Furthermore, listings for most notes are unchanged
from one edition to another.
Conflict-of-interest: The "values" listed in the catalogs
are obtained by surveying a small group of dealers and collectors, some
of whom may purposefully undervalue notes so that they can replenish
their inventories inexpensively, and others who may overvalue notes they
intend to sell.
Estimates: Even if you give the catalog contributors the benefit of
the doubt and assume they're all doing their best to provide honest values,
the fact remains that they are not reporting actual sales, but rather
simply providing estimates of the value of notes that they may not have
handled or sold in years, if ever.
Unrealistic: Modern issues are often valued at an unrealistically small
mark-up to their current exchange rate. Since dealers must pay their
sources a premium for uncirculated notes, absorb the carrying cost of
inventory, and try to make a profit, a good rule of thumb is to price
modern issues at twice current
exchange rates.
Incomplete: As collectors who specialize in particular notes will confirm,
there can be dramatic differences in the market values of various signature
combinations and/or dates, but often the catalog doesn't distinguish
between these varieties.
Inaccurate: Every catalog edition has been riddled with egregious errors,
such as missing notes, incorrect images, and unlisted date/signature
varieties. With such a dubious track record, how much confidence can
you place in published values, especially those which inexplicably rise
or fall from one edition to the next?
Rarity: Collectible banknotes are not commodities readily available
on a retail market at a fixed price. True rarities may come on the market
only once in a lifetime, and even so-called "common" notes
are often impossible to find at any price.
So the next time you find a note selling above or below the catalog "value," keep
the above points in mind before you assume you're being ripped off or are
getting a bargain.